Angela Noufaily
Research Associate in Statistics -- The Open University

 
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          Research interests

               Generalised linear models (GLMs):

               This includes ANOVA, ANCOVA and time series models (part of my BSc and MSc). I
               continue to work with GLMs while exploring the regression-based Farrington method
               for outbreak detection of infectious diseases. This includes improving this approach  
               and introducing new methods for outbreak detection. 
 
               Distribution theory: 

               Skills developed by studying the generalised gamma distribution in depth in my PhD thesis.  
               Maximum likelihood estimation using different reparametrisations and asymptotics were
               developed. As part of my PhD thesis, inspired by the generalised gamma, I developed a new 
               distribution with interesting properties.  
 
               Quantile regression 

               Parametric quantile regression formed one of the main topics of my PhD thesis. The
               quantiles of a generalised gamma distribution were fitted to data sets and compared
               with other models. One of the main advantages is that the quantiles did not cross
               (as is the case in the nonparametric cases) and they covered a wide range of shapes
               that can be used for reference charts. 
 
               Survival analysis: 

               I am interested in modelling frailties using three- and four-parameter distributions
               for explaining heterogeneity in transmission of infectious diseases. Using flexible
               parametric models in survival analysis is a topic I plan to studydeeply.
 

          Publications

              6. Angela Noufaily, Yonas G. Weldesselassie, Doyo G. Enki, Paddy Farrington, Paul  
                 Garthwaite, Nick Andrews and André Charlett (2013).  Modeling Reporting Delays for  
                 Outbreak Detection in Infectious Disease Data. (Awaiting decision from journal's 
                 editor following the submission of first revisions).
              
              5. Doyo G. Enki, Angela Noufaily and Paddy Farrington. A Time-Varying Shared Frailty 
                 Model with Application to Infectious Diseases. (Accepted for Annals of Applied 
                 Statistics). Open University Statistics Group Technical Report 13/01 available from 
                 statistics.open.ac.uk.

              4. Angela Noufaily and M. C. Jones. Parametric Quantile Regression Based on the 
                 Generalised Gamma Distribution. (In Press: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 
                 Series C). Open University Statistics Group Technical Report 12/02 available from 
                 statistics.open.ac.uk.

              3. Doyo G. Enki, Angela Noufaily, Paul H. Garthwaite, Nick J. Andrews, André Charlett   
                 and C. Paddy Farrington (2013). Twenty Years of Automated Biosurveillance: Data From  
                 the England and Wales Outbreak Detection System. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 19(1), 
                 p. 35-42. 
    
              2. Angela Noufaily, Doyo G. Enki, Paddy Farrington, Paul Garthwaite, Nick Andrews 
                 and André Charlett (2013). An Improved Algorithm for Outbreak Detection in Multiple 
                 Surveillance Systems. Statistics in Medicine, 32(7), 1206-1222. 

              1. Angela Noufaily and M. C. Jones (2013). On Maximisation of the Likelihood for the
                 Generalised Gamma Distribution. Computational Statistics, 28, 505-517.